Michigan lost four starters, its coach, and a star recruit before the season started

Michigan enters the 2026-27 season as the defending national champion, but the program has lost four starters from its title roster since the April tournament ended. The Wolverines also parted ways with head coach Dusty May in late June and saw their top incoming recruit, Brandon McCoy, tear his ACL in late August. These losses have reshaped the team’s outlook for a second consecutive title.

The offseason brought rapid changes across the sport. Milan Momcilovic, the top scorer for Michigan last season, transferred to Kentucky. The NCAA implemented a new eligibility rule that has triggered lawsuits and roster uncertainty for teams nationwide. With the regular season approaching, analysts at ESPN assessed the implications of these shifts for the upcoming campaign.

Jeff Borzello, Joe Lunardi, and Myron Medcalf evaluated the likelihood of a Michigan repeat. Borzello noted that the loss of May and McCoy makes a championship less likely, though he believes Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney form one of the best backcourts in the country. Incoming transfers J.P. Estrella and Moustapha Thiam are expected to develop into potential first-round NBA draft picks. Borzello projects Michigan will reach the second weekend of the NCAA tournament but views a repeat as too ambitious.

Medcalf argued that the path to back-to-back titles is clearer this year because no other team possesses the depth of the previous Michigan squad. He pointed out that the class of 2026 NBA draft did not produce physically imposing freshmen like A.J. Dybantsa, Caleb Wilson, or Cameron Boozer. Medcalf sees the gap between good and great teams as smaller, giving Mike Boynton’s team a viable chance, though an early tournament exit remains a risk.

Lunardi viewed Michigan as one of the least likely repeat candidates in recent history. He compared the situation to Florida, which returned a deep roster a year ago but fell in the Round of 32. Lunardi cited the heavy roster turnover and the difficulty of the Big Ten conference as factors that prevent the Wolverines from being the dominant force they were in 2025-26.

Other storylines include Duke’s approach under coach Jon Scheyer, who is ranked No. 2 despite lacking a one-and-done lottery pick. Scheyer faces questions about point guard play and the integration of new players like John Blackwell and Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje. Meanwhile, the NCAA’s handling of fifth-year eligibility has created legal chaos. LSU had only four players on its official roster weeks ago, and the NCAA is actively litigating against players seeking extra eligibility in the Wisne federal case.

The NCAA tournament will expand to 76 teams this season. Lunardi expressed concern that the majority of the eight new bids will go to mid-tier power conference teams. He argued that the current selection mechanism rewards scheduling strategies only major conferences can execute, a system he believes needs reform similar to college football’s bowl eligibility criteria.

Florida is considered a team with much to lose, as it retains four of its top seven players from two seasons ago. Kentucky, under coach Mark Pope, is under pressure after spending $6 million to sign Momcilovic. Texas is expected to make a leap with the return of Matas Vokietaitis and the addition of Marcus Spears Jr. Miami, under new coach Jai Lucas, is also positioned to return to the NCAA tournament second weekend after a period of decline.