Netanyahu Faces 61-Seat Hurdle in First Israeli Vote Since 2023

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu enters the first national election since the October 7, 2023 attacks, facing a race that polling suggests will end without a clear winner. Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday to choose the next government, a decision that will determine how the country manages ongoing conflicts and deep domestic divisions.

The contest is split between two major coalitions. Netanyahu’s bloc includes his Likud party along with far-right and ultra-Orthodox groups such as United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposition alliance unites four Jewish-led parties, including the Yashar party of Gadi Eisenkot, Yair Golan’s Democrats, and the Together alliance joined by Yair Lapid.

A final poll conducted before the publication ban took effect on Friday projected a tight outcome. The survey by public broadcaster KAN gave the opposition 52 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc 50 in the 120-seat Knesset. Because a party needs 61 seats to secure a majority, neither side is positioned to govern alone without a partner.

The two main Arab-majority lists, Ra’am and the Joint List, are expected to win the remaining seats. However, both major blocs have ruled out partnering with these parties for now. This dynamic could force coalition leaders to choose between a minority government or calling for another election.

Voters are weighing domestic issues alongside the war. Many demand accountability for security failures preceding the 2023 attacks and criticize the military exemption granted to the ultra-Orthodox community. Mairav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group noted that secular opposition factions view this vote as the last chance to save Israeli democracy.

Netanyahu’s personal stakes are high as the country’s longest-serving prime minister. He has led Israel for more than 15 of the last 17 years and faces corruption charges from 2019. A defeat would leave him vulnerable in his ongoing trial, while an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes hangs over his head.

Approximately 7.3 million citizens are eligible to vote, including 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polls suggest turnout in that community could reach 60 percent, potentially giving Arab parties 15 seats. The Supreme Court recently reversed a decision by the Central Elections Committee that had barred the Joint List and Ra’am from the race.

Netanyahu has argued that only Likud can prevent the opposition from partnering with Arab parties. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, suggested this strategy could keep Netanyahu in office as caretaker if no bloc secures a majority. Meanwhile, about three million Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank remain without a vote in the government that controls their lives.