Israel Votes Tuesday in First Election Since 2023 Hamas Attack

More than 74,000 people have died in Gaza since the war began in October 2023. That number anchors the context for Tuesday's election in Israel, a vote that marks the first national ballot since the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023.

The conflict has expanded beyond Gaza. Israeli forces have carried out attacks on Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Qatar. The war in Iran has choked key energy routes and sent global markets into turmoil. In Gaza, deadly attacks continue almost daily despite a yearlong ceasefire agreement. In the West Bank, settler violence and army raids have intensified.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to extend his tenure. He is the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history. Since 2022, he has led the country's most right-wing governing coalition. This coalition brought together far-right ultranationalist parties and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties.

Netanyahu faces two major legal challenges. The International Criminal Court wants him on charges of war crimes in Gaza. He also faces a long-running domestic trial for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, charges he denies. His opponents form a bloc that describes itself as Zionist. Analysts note that this opposition has fundamentally embraced a right-wing approach to Israel's challenges.

The campaign focused on internal political disputes. Key issues included accountability for alleged security failures before the October 7 attack. Other major disputes concerned the military service requirements for the ultra-Orthodox minority and efforts to exclude Arab-led parties from potential coalitions.

Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani, an Israeli sociologist, stated that the entire Israeli political system operates within a framework of Jewish supremacy. He argued that no leader presenting themselves as an alternative to Netanyahu can genuinely be described as left-wing. He said the current reality is rooted in Zionist political thought, which he describes as being structured around the principle of Jewish supremacy.

Ahron Bregman, an Israeli analyst at King's College London, said the outcome will change the atmosphere but not necessarily the direction of policy. He noted that if Gadi Eisenkot becomes prime minister, the main initial change will be the vibe. Bregman cautioned that Israel turned sharply to the right after October 7. He said any new government will reflect that reality.

Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House, described the vote as a decision on whether Israel will remain a functioning democracy or become a democracy in name only. He said the choice also determines whether the West Bank remains under occupation or is fully annexed. He noted that government figures have suggested a policy of voluntary migration for the Palestinian population in the West Bank.

None of the mainstream candidates have talked about including Arab-led parties in a potential coalition. In Israel's popular media, references to leaders of Ra'am or the Joint List are typically used to denounce opponents. Shenhav-Shahrabani said the ultra-Orthodox parties would be welcome in government by either side, while Arab-led parties representing one-fifth of the population would be excluded by a system built on prejudice.

Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, said the treatment of Palestinians is a consensus among Zionist parties. He said differences among these parties rest on whether it is the state's job to oppress Palestinians or if settler militias also have a role to play. He stated that the election is not a referendum on the war in Gaza because no side is arguing it was a good thing while the other argues it was a bad thing.