UNM's 20.3% CFP Chance Hinges on Boise State's Losses
New Mexico sits as the second-favorite Group of Six team for a playoff bid, but the Lobos need the Broncos to stumble in their final four games to secure a spot.
By Grace Anderson ·
The University of New Mexico holds a 20.3% probability of earning a berth in the 12-team College Football Playoff, a figure that places the Lobos in the top 18 of all 138 FBS teams. This ranking is driven by the team's current 6-1 record and their status as the frontrunner to win the Mountain West Conference championship.
The path to the playoff began in earnest after New Mexico defeated North Dakota State 21-16 last Saturday. The victory secured the team's second consecutive bowl appearance. Head coach Jason Eck noted the shift in team culture by tossing aside a ceremonial bowling pin he had received from the nonprofit Bowl Season. Eck explained that the pin, which had been a source of celebration when the team clinched its first bowl spot last year, felt less relevant this season because the roster never focused on mere eligibility.
The playoff structure grants automatic bids to the champions of the Power Four conferences and the highest-ranked Group of Six team. The remaining seven spots are awarded at large. Under the current revenue model, conferences receive $4 million for each team selected. For the Lobos, the automatic Group of Six bid is the primary target, though it remains contingent on results outside of New Mexico's control.
ESPN's Football Power Index identifies Boise State as the leading candidate for the Group of Six spot, assigning the Broncos a 51.7% chance of selection. UNM trails Boise State in most major metrics. The Lobos require the Broncos to lose their final four games to overtake them in the rankings. Additional opportunities would arise if Texas-San Antonio or Oregon State also suffered defeats.
Even if New Mexico wins all six remaining games, including the conference title, a playoff bid is not guaranteed. If the Lobos win the Mountain West without a CFP selection, they will likely be invited to a bowl game operated by ESPN Events. League spokesman Stuart Buchanan confirmed that ESPN does not have a mandatory obligation to select the Mountain West champion for these games.
The most probable destination for a non-playoff Mountain West champion is a game in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. ESPN Events operates three such bowls: the Frisco Bowl on Dec. 15, the Armed Forces Bowl on Dec. 22, and the First Responder Bowl on Jan. 2. Last season, these games paid out $650,000, $1.35 million, and $2.4 million, respectively. The Cactus Bowl on Dec. 26 also remains a possibility if the Big Ten or Big 12 fails to fill its primary tie-in slot.
Other potential matchups include the Boca Raton Bowl, Potato Bowl, Puerto Rico Bowl, Hawaii Bowl, Isleta New Mexico Bowl, and the Arizona Bowl. Eck acknowledged the appeal of postseason play but reiterated that the team's focus remains on securing the conference title and a higher national profile.
