Israelis vote Tuesday in Knesset race where neither bloc projects a majority

Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday for the 120 seats of the Knesset, ending a campaign marked by war and intense partisan division. The vote follows three years of multi-front conflict and serves as the first national election since the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023. Polls indicate that neither the right-wing bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition change bloc is likely to secure the 61 seats needed to form a government independently.

Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, described the most probable outcome as indecisive. He noted that the tight margins could trigger protracted negotiations, the formation of a minority government, or a repeat election. The stakes are high because a stalemate would force lawmakers to cross ideological lines or leave the country without a stable cabinet.

Netanyahu is campaigning on the premise that he alone can build a government without relying on Israel's Arab parties, which he argues pose a security risk. He also argues that the military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran are ongoing and require his continued leadership to conclude. President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu last week, warning that the United States would have to take over the fight against Iran if a different leader took office in Israel.

Netanyahu's campaign slogan, which rhymes in Hebrew, frames the choice as a binary between a right-wing government and existential threats from Palestine or a nuclear-armed Iran. He recently shared an AI-generated image of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv on social media to reinforce the danger posed by Iran. Supporters like Benny Abraham, a restaurant owner, view Netanyahu as a charismatic global leader who can manage international relations effectively.

The opposition, a diverse group of Arab, right, left, and center parties, is united only by the goal of removing Netanyahu from power. Gadi Eisenkot, the former military chief leading the centrist Yashar party, is the front-runner to lead this coalition. Eisenkot, who lost his son and two nephews in the Gaza war, is positioning himself as a unifying figure and has promised to launch a state inquiry into the intelligence failures of October 7, 2023. He criticized Netanyahu's recent rhetoric as a campaign of fear-mongering and threats.

Voter turnout among Arab Israelis will be a decisive variable in the final count. They comprise approximately 20% of the population, and higher participation makes it harder for Netanyahu to form a coalition. Jehad Abomoch, a cafe owner in Baqa al Gharbiya, said many Arab voters feel they have no future under the current government and are motivated to prevent a return to his far-right alliance. Two new parties also hover near the threshold for Knesset entry, both demanding that ultra-Orthodox parties accept mandatory military service.

If neither side wins a majority, several paths exist for forming a government. Parties might switch sides, a common occurrence in Israeli politics, or the change bloc could attempt to form a minority government with the support or abstention of Arab parties. If negotiations fail, the country faces the prospect of another election, a scenario that occurred five times between 2019 and 2022.

Plesner said that if politicians stick to their campaign pledges and refuse to swap sides in a stalemate, Israel will likely roll into another election. He added that while most politicians are not interested in that outcome, the current polling data suggests it is a realistic possibility.