Lula's return halts regional pivot toward Israel

Luiz Inácio da Silva, known as Lula, won the Brazilian presidency with 51.79% of valid votes, defeating center-right senator Flavio Bolsonaro, who received 48.21%. The result stops a regional movement toward closer alignment with Israel that gained momentum following the 2023 Hamas attack. Lula, a leader of the Workers Party, has positioned himself as a critic of Israel’s military operations in Gaza, whereas his opponent had promised a renewed partnership with the state.

The election outcome creates a divergence in foreign policy among Brazil's neighbors. Since 2023, several Latin American nations have reversed previous diplomatic stances to prioritize relations with Israel. Argentina’s President Javier Milei, elected in 2023, has made support for Israel central to his administration's strategy. Bolivia’s President Rodrigo Paz Pereira, elected in 2025, restored diplomatic relations that his predecessor had cut. Honduras’s President Nasry Asfura, also elected in 2025, formally recognized Israel’s new ambassador, a process that had been stalled under previous leadership.

Chile’s President José Antonio Kast, elected in 2025, is working to rebuild ties that diminished during his predecessor’s term. Colombia’s President Abelardo de la Espriella, who took office in May, restored severed diplomatic ties and sent his foreign minister to inaugurate an embassy in Jerusalem. De la Espriella also withdrew Colombia from the International Court of Justice genocide case against Israel. These moves contrast with Lula’s government, which endorsed South Africa’s case against Israel in January 2024.

Flavio Bolsonaro had outlined a specific plan for Brazilian diplomacy during a speech on June 28, 2026, in Buenos Aires. He told Jewish leaders that in 2027, Brazil would appoint an ambassador to Israel and move its embassy to Jerusalem. Bolsonaro also praised the 120,000 Jews in Brazil, describing them as ranking among the brightest in medicine, industry, science, culture, and business. After Bolsonaro led Lula in the first round on October 4, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a message congratulating him and expressing hope to restore the friendship between the two nations.

Lula’s critical stance toward Israel intensified in early 2024 when he compared Palestinian suffering in Gaza to the Holocaust. The remarks triggered a diplomatic crisis and drew condemnation from Brazil’s Jewish umbrella organization, CONIB, and the Holocaust Museum of Buenos Aires. CONIB stated that the comparison distorted history and offended the memory of victims. Bolsonaro has stated he does not accept the election results, though the mechanism for a challenge remains unclear.