Israelis Vote as Neither Leading Candidate Appears Likely to Form Government

Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday in a general election that many observers regard as one of the most consequential in the nation's history. The vote takes place against a backdrop of ongoing military operations in Gaza and deep divisions over the country's political future.

Polling data released on Friday indicates that incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot are locked in a close race. However, projections suggest that neither man's political bloc will secure the 61 seats required to form a majority government. This mathematical hurdle implies that weeks or months of intense negotiation may follow the count.

The campaign has centered heavily on national security. The opposition bloc has criticized Netanyahu for the security failures that preceded the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks. Those attacks resulted in the deaths of nearly 1,200 people and the capture of 251 hostages who were taken to Gaza. Opponents have demanded an independent commission of inquiry into the events, a measure Netanyahu has resisted, arguing it would be biased against him.

Netanyahu has positioned himself as the primary guardian of security. He cites recent military victories in the Middle East and his close relationship with US President Donald Trump. Eisenkot, who leads the newly formed Yashar Party, heads the change bloc. This coalition includes former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, right-wing leader Avigdor Lieberman, and left-leaning former general Yair Golan.

Netanyahu's path to power likely depends on reuniting with the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that form his current governing coalition. This is the most right-leaning alliance in Israeli history. Two Arab party blocs are also competing, representing about one-fifth of the population. While all but one leading Jewish party have ruled out formal alliances with them, the Arab blocs could theoretically influence the outcome.

Critics have pointed to threats to democracy under Netanyahu's rule. He faces an ongoing trial on corruption charges, which he denies, and has continued to pursue judicial reforms that sparked mass protests before the recent war. In the final days of the campaign, Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu sought last-minute military action against Iran but was opposed by military chief Eyal Zamir. CNN later reported that Trump refused to approve new strikes on Iran. Netanyahu denied both reports.

Netanyahu also drew attention for posting an AI-generated image of a nuclear bomb striking Tel Aviv. He warned that he was the only leader capable of protecting Israel if Iran acquired nuclear weapons. Eisenkot described the move as hysterical. Another major issue is conscription. The government has not enforced a Supreme Court ruling requiring ultra-Orthodox men in full-time religious study to join the military, a decision that has divided the public while thousands of others fight in the war.

Eisenkot has pledged to end Hamas rule in Gaza within 18 months, using a US-led peace plan or military force if necessary. Israel has continued striking Gaza almost daily since a ceasefire was agreed last year. According to Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry, the Israeli military has killed more than 74,000 people since the war began. The UN considers these figures reliable.

Eisenkot supports Israeli settlements in the West Bank but wants to curb attacks by extremist settlers. He has suggested creating conditions for Palestinian autonomy or a state-minus under Israeli security control. The traditional two-state solution has largely vanished from mainstream debate. Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five separate elections as parties struggled to form coalitions. A new deadlock would see Netanyahu remain interim prime minister while new elections are called.

Approximately 70,000 Israelis have flown home from abroad to vote. Hundreds of thousands are casting ballots for the first time. Exit polls are scheduled to be published at 22:00 local time. Many soldier votes will not be counted until Wednesday, a delay that may benefit right-wing parties with strong support among that demographic. Likud will meet in Jerusalem to watch the results, while Yashar will assemble in Tel Aviv.