Serbia's New Government Faces 14 Years of Institutional Debt Before Fixing Foreign Policy

Serbia entered a new political era on Sunday when the Student List won a historic election victory.

The result ends fourteen years of continuous rule by Aleksandar Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party.

International observers immediately asked if the change in leadership would trigger a rapid pivot in Belgrade's external strategy.

Analysts argue that internal repair must come first.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that regional relations will not be the immediate focus.

He noted that the new authorities must address a system that captured democratic institutions.

Specific areas requiring attention include the judiciary, prosecution service, police, and media sector.

Popov described the priority as tidying up at home before solving problems with neighbors.

Relations with Croatia remain tense following Vucic's accusation that Zagreb organized a color revolution.

Ties with Montenegro are disrupted, and issues with Bosnia and Herzegovina remain unresolved.

Popov observed that Belgrade and Zagreb often exchanged sharp words while quietly converging on strategies regarding Bosnia.

He expressed hope that a government led by experts would repair damaged ties to revive EU integration hopes. Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King's College London, predicted that foreign policy structures would remain largely intact. He stated that Moscow never fully trusted Vucic but viewed him as a familiar figure. Russian influence will decrease as Vucic-controlled media loses its platform to glorify Moscow. Intelligence cooperation is expected to be downgraded. However, Vuksanovic said the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight. Serbia still requires preferential gas prices from Russia. The Kosovo dispute remains unresolved, and parts of the public remain disillusioned with the West. Vuksanovic asserted that the new government will not see value in joining EU sanctions. Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas. A question mark remains over ammunition deliveries to Ukraine. The opposition viewed Vucic's weapons sales to Kyiv as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance. Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, said ties with Israel will continue but face scrutiny. The new government will re-examine contracts for Serbian ammunition exports and Israeli surveillance equipment imports. Jaksic noted that Netanyahu's government lost another nationalist ally in Europe after Viktor Orban's removal in Hungary. Serbia's future stance on Israel will depend on the outcome of Israel's own elections. Jaksic suggested that the policy of sitting on multiple chairs will be re-evaluated. It is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU. Presidential elections are scheduled for December 2026. The international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments.