Israelis face months of coalition bargaining as Netanyahu's bloc falls short of majority

Voters in Israel now face a period of intense political maneuvering after final results confirmed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition did not secure a majority in the Knesset. The outcome shifts the burden to a complex web of negotiations among parties with sharply different agendas, ranging from ultra-Orthodox groups to secular movements and Arab-led factions.

The data released early Friday detailed the split in the 120-seat parliament. Netanyahu’s bloc claimed 53 seats. The primary opposition bloc took 48 seats. Arab-led parties secured the remaining 19 seats, a result described as historic for their voting strength. To form a government, any group of parties must combine forces to reach at least 61 seats.

Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, remains in his current role until a new cabinet is established. Yair Lapid, a centrist politician, posted on the social media platform X that the difficult phase has begun. He asked the public for patience as the political machinery grinds through the next steps.

The formal process requires the election results to be certified and sent to President Isaac Herzog by next Wednesday. Herzog will then designate a leader to attempt to build a government. This mandate could go to Netanyahu, who leads the largest party, or to another figure the party leaders deem capable of assembling the necessary support.

Uncertainty surrounds whether opposition parties will honor their campaign pledges to remove Netanyahu. They may choose to partner with Arab-led parties, a move that has occurred only briefly before in 2021. Alternatively, they might ally with Netanyahu in a unity government. If no viable coalition emerges, Israel will likely hold another election in early next year. Herzog stated this week that he intends to work hard to prevent that outcome.

Tensions rose in the hours before the final count was released. Netanyahu and his Likud party raised claims that Arab-led parties had stolen the election, potentially with help from abroad. The opposition criticized this as a tactic to demonize the Arab population, which constitutes 20% of the country’s residents. Many of these voters turned out in high numbers, partly driven by frustration with Netanyahu’s far-right allies, including national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

In his first public remark on Friday, Netanyahu posted on X that forming a coalition with Arab parties is forbidden. He suggested it would be treasonous for his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, to join such an alliance. This stance appeared designed to block the most likely path for the opposition to reach the 61-seat threshold.

The head of the election committee, Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, noted that serious suspicions of foreign interference were brought to his attention. He wrote to the Shin Bet security agency requesting an investigation, though he acknowledged he could not verify the claims himself. Israeli media reported that some members of Netanyahu’s party pointed to Qatar as a possible foreign actor. Qatar rejected these allegations, calling them ridiculous and dangerous.

Dean Livne, the acting director general of the election commission, stated that the investigation relied on classified intelligence. He emphasized that the probe does not alter the final results submitted to the president nor target any specific sector of the population. The Shin Bet added that its review was not intended to cast aspersions on a group that exercised its democratic right to vote.

The new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10. If Eisenkot’s bloc joins forces with Arab parties, they could elect a new speaker and control the parliamentary agenda. This would allow them to advance legislation before a new government is formed. If Netanyahu loses his position, he faces pending corruption trials and a likely inquiry into security failures leading up to the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack.