Netanyahu and Eisenkot face stalemate as Israeli coalition talks stall

Israel’s recent election has left the country without a clear governing majority. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, holds the 61 seats required to control the 120-seat Knesset. This deadlock forces the nation into a period of intense negotiation where no single leader can immediately assume power.

The opposition bloc gained more seats than Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition. However, Eisenkot, a center-right former military chief of staff, lacks a majority without the support of predominantly Arab parties. Eisenkot’s allies ruled out this alliance during the campaign, creating a mathematical and political impasse. Netanyahu’s Likud party received the most individual votes, but his broader coalition of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties also falls short of the necessary threshold.

The process to break the deadlock begins immediately. Israel’s president will consult with leaders of all elected parties in the coming days. Each party will recommend a leader they believe can form a coalition. The president is not bound to choose the leader of the largest party. Instead, the president selects the candidate most likely to assemble a majority. That candidate has 28 days to secure 61 lawmakers. The president may extend this deadline by up to 14 days. If the effort fails, the president can offer the opportunity to another candidate.

Eisenkot appears more likely to receive the first mandate based on current party recommendations. Yet, he faces a difficult choice. His bloc needs Arab party support to reach a majority of more than 67 seats. He has promised not to govern with these parties, citing their positions on Hamas and the Gaza war. Netanyahu faces a similar barrier. His traditional partners do not have enough seats to return him to power without new alliances.

Several paths remain open to form a government. One option is a unity government involving both Netanyahu and Eisenkot. President Trump reportedly favors this outcome, according to media reports. Such a coalition would likely include moderate parties and could facilitate cooperation with the U.S. on Gaza reconstruction and normalization with Saudi Arabia. However, Eisenkot has pledged not to serve under Netanyahu, and the two must resolve who leads the government and whether the role rotates.

A second possibility is an Eisenkot government supported by Arab parties from outside the coalition. This arrangement would provide a comfortable majority but contradicts campaign promises. A third option is another election. The president has urged leaders to avoid the polls, but a repeat election is possible if no majority emerges. Netanyahu may see benefit in a new vote, as Arab turnout might decline and liberal overseas voters might not return. A fourth possibility involves lawmakers defecting. Netanyahu would need about eight defectors, while Eisenkot would need approximately 13 if he excludes Arab parties.

The opposition may act in parliament before a new government is formed. They could advance legislation with support from Arab lawmakers. Eisenkot’s bloc is considering replacing the Knesset speaker to control the legislative agenda. They also aim to establish a state commission of inquiry into the failures preceding the October 7, 2023 attack. These moves would give opponents power during the negotiations. The situation may also be affected by tensions with Iran. Netanyahu stated Israel must complete its mission against Iran. Eisenkot warned against using security for political needs. Analysts note that a renewed conflict could pressure Eisenkot into a unity government, a dynamic that followed the October 7 attack when Eisenkot briefly joined the war cabinet before resigning.